Thick red lines show the extent of historic ruptures. Since then, research has indicated that the likelihood of a Hayward quake is greater and more threatening to the 7 million Bay Area residents than a San Andreas … Bay Area Retrofit does not recommend performing a retrofit without the guidance and supervision of experienced and knowledgeable retrofit professionals, and is not responsible for costly errors, injuries, or earthquake damage that result from such attempts. Bold numbers show the average time between big earthquakes, determined at paleoseismic sites (triangles). Fault-plane reflections reveal that two of these faults, the San Andreas and Hayward, dip toward each other below seismogenic depths at 60° and 70°, respectively, and persist to the base of the crust. The San Andreas Fault is a continental transform fault that extends roughly 1,200 kilometers (750 mi) through California. The Hayward Fault is 40 miles long and about 8 miles deep and trends along the east side of San Francisco Bay. The highway paralleling the lakes to the left is Interstate 280, ``the most beautiful urban highway in the United States''. The SAFZ started moving about 28-30 million years ago and has horizontally slipped (transform motion) a total of about 300-350 km (186-220 mi)since it began moving. Careful analysis of the age of the earthquakes, including the uncertainties in radiocarbon dating (see Determining the Age of a Paleoearthquake in Introduction to Paleoseismology), showed that the average time between earthquakes is about 100 years. The most striking result is that the deformation is not uniformly distributed across the area. (Credit: Kate Scharer, USGS. Three earthquakes occurred within a 70-year period between 1838 and 1906, but there were no earthquakes during the 500 years before that, and there have been no earthquakes in the 110 years since 1906. Maybe you’ve heard that the “Big One is overdue” on the San Andreas Fault. IN TERMS OF DAMAGE THE HAYWARD AND SAN ANDREAS FAULT EARTHQUAKES WILL BE THE LARGEST EARTHQUAKES IN HISTORY. Analysis of a geodetic network of 115 lines crossing the San Andreas, Hayward, and Calaveras faults in the vicinity of San Francisco Bay and measured repeatedly between 1970 and 1980 has revealed details about the accommodation of relative plate motion in this area. It runs through densely populated areas, including Richmond, El Cerrito, Berkeley, Oakland, San Leandro, Castro Valley, Hayward, Union City, Fremont, and San Jose. In fact, it was considered the “great earthquake” until the San Andreas Fault tore San Francisco apart 38 years later. CBS News did a short but excellent documentary on the huge impact a rupture of the Cascadia Fault will have on our country. This in turn can cause the Hayward Fault to rupture. It is similar to riding in the back of a pick-up truck which accelerates very quickly and stops suddenly. Earthquake country just got a little scarier. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake is estimated to have been in the 7.8 range (and possibly even larger.) Many of the sites paleoseismologists have been studying are along key sections of the SAFZ where there is a large population or major infrastructure that would be affected by a large earthquake in the future. Studies of this section of the fault suggest an average recurrence interval of 200-300 years. The Hayward fault is a 90 kilometer long crack in the Earth's crust that travels through the San Francisco Bay area. The Hayward Fault is 40 miles long and about 8 miles deep and trends along the east side of San Francisco Bay. ...and thank-you to the Facebook poster who gave us the idea for the title! A retrofit prevents this kind of movement. Click the … It is parallel to and east of its more famous (and much longer) sister fault, the San Andreas Fault. Near fault shear strain rates are 0.6 ± 0.1 μstrain/yr (engineering) with direction N47°W ± 9. The earthquake will cause $90.4 billion damage to residential buildings and 96.4 to commercial buildings. The faults shown here are represented by simple lines which do not convey how complicated they can be. Click on a pin on the map to see more information. Page 75 of The online version of “The Coming Bay Area Earthquake: 2010 Update of Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake on the Hayward Fault published by the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute describes the situation vividly. Introduction [2] The Hayward Fault is located on the eastern side of San Francisco Bay, California, and forms one branch of the San Andreas Fault system that accommodates the relative motion between the North American and Pacific plates. The Hayward Fault is an offset of the San Andreas Fault system that dominates the landforms of eastern San Francisco Bay. The fault has been creeping about 4.6 mm/yr (0.2 inches/yr) for the last several decades, but that is only half of the long-term slip rate, so stress is building upon this fault. This means that earthquakes as large as M=7.4 are possible on both sides of San Francisco Bay, rather than just on the San Andreas, as we had thought before. IT IS NOT INTENDED AS A GUIDE FOR DIY RETROFITS. The slip rate near the San Andreas fault is … The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay area runs through a densely-populated area, so it has been studied quite a bit.The most recent major earthquake on this fault was approximately M6.9 and occurred in 1868. Its notoriety comes partly from the disastrous 1906 San Francisco earthquake, but rather more importantly because it passes through California, a highly-populated state that is frequently in the news.And with many research institutions dedicated to studying such an accessible fault, the SAF has become a household name. The ground consistently moves a few millimeters each year, pulling apart sidewalks, pipelines and other structures that sit astride the fault. Scientists have a good big picture understanding of the San Andreas Fault Zone (SAFZ). The San Andreas Fault is locked in many places; much of its energy is released in the form of earthquakes. Basically, because it’s a big fault that is close to some big cities. Historic information doesn’t provide enough data to establish whether or not there is a pattern in the timing of earthquakes, but paleoseismology has provided an abundance of data. Scientists are now saying that the “Big One” in California may not be caused by the San Andreas fault line, but by the Hayward Bay fault line. 408-664-6355 The “zone” part of the name means it’s a system with the main fault and many sub-parallel faults that all together take up the motion between the two plates. The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay area runs through a densely-populated area, so it has been studied quite a bit. This means that earthquakes as large as M=7.4 are possible on both sides of San Francisco Bay, rather than just on the San Andreas, as we had thought before. New Study Finds Hayward Fault More Dangerous Than San Andreas. The transform boundary initiated about 30 million years ago when a spreading ridge separating the Pacific and Farallon Plates intersected with the North American continental crust near what is now Los Angeles, California (Fig. 1. Public domain.). North to south, it runs from just west of Pinole Point on the south shore of San Pablo Bay and through Berkeley (just under the western rim of the San Jose, Sunnyvale, Fremont, Oakland, Berkeley and Surrounding Areas Since then, research has indicated that the likelihood of a Hayward quake is greater and more threatening to the 7 million Bay Area residents than a San Andreas … The chart below should give you some perspective on how much devastation this is compared to other large earthquakes. (Credit: Kate Scharer, USGS. The recurrence intervals (times between earthquakes) at Wrightwood are more regular than clustered (determined by a mathematical analysis), and only four times in the past has the interval between two major earthquakes been longer than the current interval (since 1857). The highway paralleling the lakes to the left is Interstate 280, ``the most beautiful urban highway in the United States''. The Hayward fault under Oakland is more dangerous than the well-known San Andreas fault in Southern California, according to a new study that says it has the potential to kill at least 800 people and injure 18,000 more, The Los Angeles Times reported. The fault marks the boundary between the North American and Pacific lithospheric plates. What does the science say? Its last major rupture occurred in 1868, during California's frontier days, and was the original "Great San Francisco Earthquake" until 1906.. San Andreas. The Hayward Fault. North to south, it runs from just west of Pinole Point on the south shore of San Pablo Bay and through Berkeley (just under the western rim of the However, creep occurs in spots along the Hayward Fault. Liability Ins PCA 1045011 A section of sidewalk in Hayward that showed the movement of the Hayward Fault was 'fixed' by the city, much to the dismay of geologists. The Hayward fault is due for another large earthquake very soon. Exposure of the San Andreas Fault in a trench. For a 12-minute video concerning the Hayward Fault, see the KQED documentary Predictable Peril. The Calaveras Fault is a major branch of the San Andreas Fault System that is located in northern California in the San Francisco Bay Area.Activity on the different segments of the fault includes moderate and large earthquakes as well as aseismic creep.The last large event was the 1984 Morgan Hill event and the last moderate earthquake was the 2007 Alum Rock event. CHART SHOWING THE HISTORY OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES ALONG THE CASCADIA EARTHQUAKE TIME LINE, MIRROR IMAGE COMPARISON BETWEEN THE CASCADIA FAULT SHOWN ON THE RIGHT AND THE SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE ON THE LEFT THAT KILLED OVER 260,000 PEOPLE. With about 45 years between the historic earthquakes but about 160 years since the last one, it is clear that the fault does not behave like a clock with a regular beat. Investigating past earthquakes to inform the future. The fault divides into three segments, each with different characteristics and a different degree of earthquake risk. Most cities in South Bay are about 5 miles from the San Andreas fault, while the Hayward faults cuts through many East Bay cities (see California Geological Survey - CGS's Information Warehouse.). However, the edges of the blocks, the faults themselves, are stuck and only move where there is a large earthquake (some faults creep a little bit, but most are locked). The fault divides into three segments, each with different characteristics and a different degree of earthquake risk. HAYWARD FAULT RUNNING THROUGH CENTER OF UC BERKELEY SPORTS STADIUM.. MOVEMENT OF EARTH SHOWING HOW EARTHQUAKES DAMAGE HOUSES. In 2014, a paleoseismology site at Hael Creek on the Maacama fault reiterated the results found on the Hayward fault to the south – creeping with infrequent large earthquakes, and a large one expected in the not-too-distant future. The plate is moving slowly all the time, but the edges move in fits and starts. New studies farther to the northwest along the Peninsula section of the San Andreas Fault also show a long interval between the 1906 earthquake and the previous earthquake, which occurred around 1300. Hayward Bay Fault Could Be More Dangerous Than San Andreas: It’s a “Ticking Time Bomb” The following video is brought to you courtesy of the DAHBOO77 YouTube Channel. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake is estimated to have been in the 7.8 range (and possibly even larger.) Posted April 19, 2018, under Blog. The entire San Andreas fault system is more than 800 miles long and extends to depths of at least 10 miles within the Earth. DAMAGE LIKE THIS IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY WHEN THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE RUPTURES    Courtesy the Daily Mail. Fault-plane reflections reveal that two of these faults, the San Andreas and Hayward, dip toward each other below seismogenic depths at 60?? This fault regularly generates 9.0 temblors similar to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami that killed over 227,000 people in Indonesia and India. The data show that at many places along the San Andreas Fault, we have gone past the average time between large earthquakes. Along the southernmost San Andreas, from Palm Springs to the Salton Sea, earthquakes happen infrequently, about every 200-300 years. We test this method on both the Hayward Fault and San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, California. This includes Cripple Wall Retrofits, No Cripple Wall Retrofits, Retrofits of Homes with Living Area above a Garage, and Hillside Home Retrofits, THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT IS QUITE DANGEROUS AND CAN CREATE AN EARTHQUAKE 8.0 OR MORE ON THE RICHTER SCALE. The average time interval between the 5 most recent earthquakes is a little shorter, about 140 years. In detail, the fault is a complex zone of crushed and broken rock from a few hundred feet to a mile wide. Scientists say the region appears to be overdue for a significant quake. It forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate, and its motion is right-lateral strike-slip (horizontal). The San Andreas fault caused the biggest earthquakes in California with an approximate magnitude 7.9 in 1857 (Southern California) and 1906 (San Francisco). In particular, we need to design buildings and infrastructure to be able to withstand the earthquake shaking or be easily repaired. Many earthquakes have occurred along it, including famous ones in 1857, 1906 and 1989. The Hayward Fault. And what does it mean? The horizontal colored lines highlight different layers of sediment. Using the forecasts, we can properly engineer structures, plan for earthquake response, and be prepared at home to make a big difference in the impact of a significant earthquake. The most recent earthquake occurred during the time of Spanish exploration, about 300 years ago, but there is no historic record of the event. The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay area runs through a densely-populated area, so it has been studied quite a bit.The most recent major earthquake on this fault was approximately M6.9 and occurred in 1868. In northern California, the zone includes the Hayward, Calaveras, as well as the Northern San Andreas and other faults, and in southern California, the zone is even wider, encompassing the Southern San Andreas, the San Jacinto, and other faults in the Los Angeles area. Since then, nearly three million people have moved next to the Hayward fault with little regard for its earthquake potential. The similar magnitude 2011 Tohoku 9.0 earthquake that caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster is discussed in this 3-minute video. The Santa Cruz section stretches 62 km (39 mi) from Los Gatos (near San Jose) to San Juan Bautista, CA and was last ruptured in the famous 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Be sure and click the Map View and watch the videos. Map of faults in northern California. The slip rate near the San Andreas fault is … The Hayward Fault Zone is located in northern California in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Andreas Fault is a continental transform fault that extends roughly 1,200 kilometers (750 mi) through California. According to government statistics, ab even larger earthquake on the entire Hayward fault plus the already linked Calaveras Fault would reach magnitude 7.3. The magnitude-6.8 earthquake event used in this analysis is a slightly different scenario for a Hayward earthquake than the magnitude-6.9 event analyzed in 2007. An earthquake occurs when the stress from the force of the moving plate overcomes the friction causing the plate boundary edges, the fault, to stick. Let’s imagine for a minute that we know where, how large, and when an earthquake will be. Public domain.). Scientists are keeping a nervous eye on the Hayward fault, which runs along the most urbanized edge of San Francisco’s East Bay.The Hayward fault activity is capable of generating destructive earthquakes. This fault is about 74 mi (119 km) long, situated mainly along the western base of the hills on the east side of San Francisco Bay. As you returned to your home, you would probably see damaged and collapsed buildings and bridges, broken pipes and snapped power lines and scorched remains of fires. Bold numbers show the average time between big earthquakes, determined at paleoseismic sites (triangles). The San Andreas Fault is a continental transform fault that extends roughly 1,200 kilometers (750 mi) through California. This fault, called a “tectonic time bomb,” is about 74 miles long. (Public domain.). Upon entering your house, you would stumble over toppled bookcases, broken glass from mirrors no longer on the walls, and the contents of kitchen cabinets in piles on the floor. (See Earthquake Outlook for the San Francisco Bay Region 2014—2043). Let's start in southern California and work our way north. The fault has been creeping about 4.6 mm/yr (0.2 inches/yr) for the last several decades, but that is only half of the long-term slip rate, so stress is building upon this fault. (Public domain.). The San Andreas Fault and 6 other significant fault zones are present in the Bay Area: the Calaveras, Concord-Green Valley, Greenville, Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and San Gregorio Faults. San Francisco Bay Area Earthquakes: The Hayward and San Andreas Faults are probably the most studied earthquake faults in the world, so a lot is known about them. The fault has been creeping about 4.6 mm/yr (0.2 inches/yr) for the last several decades, but that is only half of the long-term slip rate, so stress is building upon this fault. Four urban areas of the San Andreas Fault System in Northern California have accumulated a sufficient amount of energy to produce major earthquakes, a new study finds. The San Andreas Fault and 6 other significant fault zones are present in the Bay Area: the Calaveras, Concord-Green Valley, Greenville, Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and San Gregorio Faults. The Hayward Fault is a "tectonic time bomb, due any time for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake," according to a 2008 USGS report. Dislocation models of the surface deformation adjacent to the Hayward fault measured with the global positioning system and interferometric synthetic aperture radar favor creep at ∼7 millimeters per year to the bottom of the seismogenic zone along a ∼20-kilometer-long northern fault segment. The In 1836 there was a large earthquake but the larges was felt on October 21, 1868. You might think that would be good because then you could leave the area beforehand and then return after the earthquake. The 150th anniversary of the 1868 earthquake, and all historical earthquake anniversaries, are opportunities to remind people that we live in earthquake country and Map of faults in southern California. West of the San Andreas fault, the 400-kilometer-long San Gregorio-Hosgri fault extends primarily offshore between Point Conception and Bolinas, and sits within 3 nautical miles (in state waters) of the Diablo Canyon Power Plant. Four urban areas of the San Andreas Fault System in Northern California have accumulated a sufficient amount of energy to produce major earthquakes, a new study finds. All rights reserved. -written by Lisa Wald, Kate Scharer, and Carol Prentice, U.S. Geological Survey. (Credit: Kate Scharer, USGS. . Here is the graphic history of earthquakes on the Hayward fault. On page 10 of Seismic Behavior of Level and Stepped Cripple Walls by Y. H. Chai, it states, “More than half of the $40 billion dollar property losses in the Northridge Earthquake were due to failures of wood frame construction, primarily as a result of the damage or collapse of residential, single-family homes ……………..”  Damage from the Hayward Fault will greatly exceed this. San Francisco Bay Area Earthquakes: The Hayward and San Andreas Faults are probably the most studied earthquake faults in the world, so a lot is known about them. THE HAYWARD FAULT IS CONNECTED TO A SERIES OF SMALLER FAULT THAT MIGHT ERUPT AT THE SAME TIME CREATING A 7.3 OR HIGHER MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE. But focusing only on avoiding an earthquake doesn’t address most of the effects from the shaking. Contractors Lic #558462 Over 155,000 housing unites will suffer enough damage to become  uninhabitable  and 350,000 people will be displaced. Other articles where Hayward Fault is discussed: California: Relief: The Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area and the San Gabriel fault zone in metropolitan Los Angeles have produced several major earthquakes, though the destructive quake centred in the Los Angeles suburb of Northridge in 1994 occurred along one of the San Andreas’s larger… The Hayward fault dataset includes 1489 earthquakes with magnitudes from … The city of Ukiah, in Northern California sits right next to the Maacama Fault, which is capable of M=7.5 earthquakes and poses a significant threat to the region. Posted April 19, 2018, under Blog. Since then, nearly three million people have moved next to the Hayward fault with little regard for its earthquake potential. History shows that five large earthquakes on the Hayward fault have occurred on average every 150 years—last being in 1868. No one can predict earthquakes, so what does the science really say? About 100 km to the northwest along the fault another site at Frazier Mountain has been investigated. While the San Andreas fault that triggered the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake has become ingrained in California culture, new … The San Andreas fault system (SAFS) consists of over a dozen faults that accommodate motion between the North American and Pacific Plates (Fig. 1 A). According to a new study, the Hayward fault line that runs under Oakland, California is believed to be more dangerous than the infamous San Andreas fault line that spans Southern California.. Thick red lines show the extent of historic ruptures. According to the Association of Bay Area Governments the Hayward Fault will cause $165 billion in damage when it ruptures. Cartoon sketch of the Pacific Plate-North American Plate boundary showing the San Andreas Fault. Scientists are working to improve forecasts that estimate how often future earthquakes will occur and how much the ground will shake so engineers and planners will know where to focus efforts to mitigate the effects of damaging earthquakes. The study concluded that there is 33% likelihood of a surface-rupturing earthquake within the next 30 years. The San Andreas has long been the quake fault California fears the most. Geographic Names Information System (GNIS), Mapping, Remote Sensing, and Geospatial Data, Earthquake Outlook for the San Francisco Bay Region 2014—2043, Map of active faults and historic ruptures in California, New Information About the San Andreas Fault, Catching Glimpses of Centuries-Old Earthquakes, Science of the New Madrid Seismic Zone - Paleoseismology, UCERF3: A New Earthquake Forecast for California’s Complex Fault System. New Study Finds Hayward Fault More Dangerous Than San Andreas. Many smaller faults branch from and join the San Andreas fault zone. It forms the tectonic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate, and its motion is right-lateral strike-slip (horizontal). Practically every house is the Bay Area is being threatened. (Play Video) San Francisco Bay Area Earthquakes: The Hayward and San Andreas Faults are probably the most studied earthquake faults in the world, so a lot is known about them. The relative motion between these two tectonic plates is 50 mm/yr (about 2 inches/yr), but that rate is distributed across all the faults that are part of the SAFZ. When the ground stops suddenly the house wants to keep on going and slides off the foundation. The San Andreas has long been the quake fault California fears the most. Workers' Comp RWCC64393236 Note that because the magnitude scale is a log scale, there is about a 25-fold difference in the energy released by these different earthquakes. According to a new study, the Hayward fault line that runs under Oakland, California is believed to be more dangerous than the infamous San Andreas fault line that spans Southern California.. What we do know is that California is "earthquake country" and we need to be prepared. But the data can’t be used to make predictions: we do not understand earthquakes well enough to know exactly where the next earthquake will occur, what the magnitude will be, or exactly when it will happen. 510-548-1111. On October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay area. The Hayward Fault is a "tectonic time bomb, due any time for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake," according to a 2008 USGS report. And what does it mean? The Hayward fault slips in large earthquakes and by aseismic creep observed along its surface trace. Each house is unique. Near fault shear strain rates are 0.6 ± 0.1 μstrain/yr (engineering) with direction N47°W ± 9. Retrofit design is based on many factors. The Hayward Fault runs south through densely populated areas, including the cities of Richmond, El Cerrito, Berkeley, Oakland, San Leandro, Hayward, Union city, Fremont, and San Jose. The San Francisco Bay area is crossed by several right-lateral strike-slip faults of the San Andreas fault zone. The San Andreas fault zone has been a very significant source of major California earthquakes. San Jose earthquake risk is caused by three connected faults: Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas. This website is intended to help clients of Bay Area Retrofit to understand their retrofit proposals. The Maacama fault is the northward continuation of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek fault system in northern California. In fact, when the "big one" happens, it is more likely to happen on the Hayward Fault than it is to happen on the San Andreas Fault. The stuck section slips, and the edge of each block catches up to the rest of the plate. Drop, Cover and Hold On sign. The San Andreas Fault and the San Francisco Bay Area This image shows San Andreas Lake and Crystal Springs reservoir from the air, looking SouthEast from HERE. The San Andreas Fault is locked in many places; much of its energy is released in the form of earthquakes. Earth scientists have been gathering data at key paleoseismic sites along sections of the San Andreas Fault to figure out the past timeline of earthquakes at each spot. Bond #SC6334450 However, creep occurs in spots along the Hayward Fault. Here is a shorter eye-opening 7-minute TV clip on the Cascadia Fault. Bay Area Retrofit assumes no responsibility or liability for use by homeowners, contractors, engineers, or anyone else of the information provided on this site. Know where, how large, and Carol Prentice, U.S. Geological Survey historic! Of earthquakes on the huge impact a rupture of the effects from the shaking California fears the most urban... 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